| September 27th, 2008 |
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As promised last night, here are my notes/liveblog of the foreign policy section of the debate (behind the cut). I've also included my final thoughts at the end.
( My Notes )
My Final Impressions:
I think that on substance, this was pretty much a draw. I think that Obama did better than McCain on the economy because he was almost certainly better able to connect with the ordinary middle class voters and speak to the concerns that they have. McCain had two arguments: earmarks and government spending. But I do not think that those two things are going to resonate strongly with the public this time around, especially since McCain didn’t really bother to explain how those issues are really connected to the current crisis. I also think Obama did a pretty good job of diminishing the importance of earmarks as a percentage of the federal budget.
I also think Obama did very well on tax policy. He talked about the necessity of ordinary people getting tax relief and how his plan would provide that and how McCain’s would not. He also did a very good job of beating back McCain’s argument about corporate taxes.
All that being said, I think that he could have gone more on the offense on the economy. He should have spoken more about how deregulation led to the current crisis and how McCain has always been a champion that sort of deregulation and he can’t speak credibly about wanting to regulate. Maybe that will come in the next debate…I hope so.
I thought McCain probably came out a bit ahead on the substance of the foreign policy debate. While I think Obama did a great job of painting McCain as having had horrible judgment at the beginning of the war and how it would unfold, I think he did a poor job addressing the issue of the surge and why withdrawal with a time table would be ok. He should take a cue from Joe Biden on that issue as Joe handled it very well on the news networks after the debates. I also think McCain probably came out ahead on the Iran discussion because I think Obama got himself bogged down in the whole Kissinger thing.
While the substance was a draw, I think Obama is the winner of the debate. First, he was calm, knowledgeable and spoke directly to the American people and I think he did a better job of at least acknowledging the problems that they had. That is reflected in the early polling numbers about the debate which suggest that he had about a 40 point lead in the category of candidate “that better understands my problems.” Second, this was McCain’s best subject—foreign policy. McCain needed to come in here and kick Obama’s ass and he clearly did not do it. Regardless of whether or not you agree with Obama, I think everyone will have to admit that he showed a tremendous understanding of all the issues and was able to speak with authority and went toe-to-toe with McCain on his greatest strength. I think he allayed a lot of fears with his performance. That leads me into the third reason, McCain’s personality and attitude. McCain never looked at Obama the entire night, Obama constantly addressed and looked at McCain. Was he scared? Angry? What? I think that the public is going to react poorly to that, it could be for McCain what Bush I’s habit of looking at his watch was in 1992….bad. Also, McCain was clearly very dismissive and contemptuous of Obama on the foreign policy part of the debate. He kept saying that Obama didn’t understand things, but that is not going to work unless Obama clearly can’t hang with McCain on these issues, but its obvious that Obama has all the knowledge he needs. Those accusations aren’t going to hold water and I think they are going to turn off a lot of people, and that is reflected in the reports from the focus groups that some of the networks were running.
We don’t see the full impact of the debates for a few more days, but I expect that this is going to help Obama.
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