 The 2008 Senate "Big Board"
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Jul. 20th, 2007 @ 09:43 am 
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We're about 16 months away from the 2008 Election. Most of the stuff you hear in the media these days is about the Presidential race. Of course, we all care about that but the battle for control of the United States Senate rages on and gets very little coverage despite the fact that it is vitally important. The GOP only needs to gain 2 seats to get the chamber back and the Democrats have a lot of pick-up targets in their drive to get a filibuster proof majority? Will either succeed? I doubt it, but you never know. So I've decided to take y'all on a short tour through next year's competitive Senate races and what I think the possibilities are for each. Remember, we're a long way away so anything can happen, but this is how I see it now. Enjoy!
Democratic Held Seats:
1. South Dakota: This seat is held by Sen. Tim Johnson who was re-elected in 2002, beating John Thune by 532 votes in a VERY bad year for Democrats. 2008 appears to be shaping up to be another pretty good year for the Dems so one would think that Sen. Johnson would have an easier time of it in 2008. However, there are several dynamics at work in this race which mean it won't be a total slam dunk for Johnson. First, Johnson suffered a major stroke in January of this year and still has not returned to work as he is still trying to complete physical therapy. Second, however, is no major Republican challenge has stepped up to challenge Johnson. The Republican Gov. Mike Rounds has decided not to run, if he had Johnson would be in a heap of trouble. Also, Johnson has a fairly large warchest and his fundraising this year has been more than adequate. Thus, without a big name Republican challenger, the big question will be how the voters in the state respond to the stroke? Will it deter them from voting to re-elect Sen. Johnson? We don't know the answer to that question yet, but my guess is "no" it will not be a huge problem. If it is, the popular Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth is waiting in the wings and Johnson could bow out in favor of her. Forecast: Leans Dem Retention
2. Louisiana: Currently held by Mary Landrieu who won re-election in a Dec. 2002 run-off. Depending on who you ask, this is either the GOP's biggest or second biggest 2008 target. In fact, the NRSC Chairman Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) has guaranteed that Mary Landrieu will be defeated next year. I think he's wrong. Its true that this is a seat that should be competitive: Its in the South, Katrina caused a number of likely Democratic voters to leave the state, and she barely won last time. Despite all that, I think Landrieu will hold on for several reasons. First, the Louisiana GOP has absolutely no bench. The one rising star that they have, Rep. Bobby Jindal, is running for governor this year and will likely win which will take him out of the running. There are a few other names being thrown about but none of them have much. Second, despite the fact that Katrina caused a number of lower income, and likely democratic voting, Louisianans out of state, Sen. Landrieu's approval rating is holding steady at about 54%, so she's looking good regardless of whether or not those voters come home. Third, she's got a TON of money and she won't face a primary challenge so she won't have to spend any of it until the general election. Fourth, she's gotten on the anti-War bandwagon and thats the side the vast majority of the American public is currently on. So barring some unforseen development, she's in good shape. Forecast: Leans Dem Retention
3. Montana: Currently held by 5-term Sen. Max Baucus. The GOP would love for this seat to be competitive, they somehow think that it is, but they are living in a dream world. Baucus won re-election comfortably in a horrible year for Democrats in 2002. Montana is strongly trending blue, having an extremely popular Democratic Governor and in 06 they ousted GOP Sen. Conrad Burns in favor of Democrat Jon Tester. Add in the fact that there is currently no credible challenger. The only challenger is the Fmr. Majority Leader of the Montana House, and he's a f'in NUTS (see: http://youtube.com/watch?v=ErsJK9R9pZQ). Plus, Baucus has a ton of money. To be quite honest, I really don't like Max Baucus. He's a corporate shill and he's almost single-handedly derailing meaningful health care reform in the Senate. But unless we can boot him in a primary (Maybe John Morrison?), he's not going anywhere. Forecast: Safe Dem Retention
4. The Democrats do have to defend several other seats next year but they are all safe seats for the Dems. They are: Arkansas (Unless Huckabee runs), Michigan, Illinois, Delaware, Massachusettes, Rhode Island, Iowa and West Virginia.
Republican Held Seats: This is where it gets very interesting.The GOP has 22 seats to defend and more than half of them are in play. The Democrats need a 10 seat pickup to get a filibuster proof majority. I know what you're saying, "Don't the dems have 51 seats? Don't they only need 9?" No. Why? Because Joe Lieberman is a not a Democrat and we won't have a true majority until we can boot his sorry ass out of the caucus. So while there are more than 10 seats in play for the Dems to take, i don't think they'll get that many.....but stranger things have happened.
1. Colorado: Open Seat: Wayne Allard has announced that he is not running for re-election and thus this is an open seat. On the Democratic side we've got Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2) who has already announced that he's running. He is not expected to draw any serious primary opposition. On the Republican side we've got.......currently nothing. There is no announced GOP candidate, though it is expected that Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer will run for the seat, but he just got finished being trounced in the 2006 race for Governor by Democrat Bill Ritter. Colorado is strongly trending blue and I expect that next year will be no different. This is about as close to a sure thing that you'll see next year. Forecast: VERY likely Dem pick-up
2. New Hampshire: Currently held by John Snunu: Snunu won a squeaker over Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in 2002. Since then, however, the state has been trending Democratic. In 2006 the Democrats held on to the governor's mansion, won both US house seats and both houses of the state legislature for the first time in decades. Now, Snunu's support of the war and Bush's other agenda items has sent his approval rating into the tank. His approval numbers are in the mid-30s and they don't look to be getting better anytime soon. Recent polling has Shaheen beating Snunu by more than 20 pts, so if she decides to enter the race, its hers. She says she'll announce before September and I'd bank on her running. If she doesn't, the nomination will probably go to Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. Low name ID has allowed Snunu to stay ahead of Marchand in the polls thus far, but I don't see that continuing. Forecast: A. IF Shaheen runs: VERY likely Dem pickup; B. If Shaheen doesn't run: leans Dem pickup.
3. Minnesota: Norm Coleman backed into this seat in 2002 when incumbent Democratic Sen. (and my personal hero) Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash about 10 days before the election. The conservative media then spun the events at the memorial service against the Democrats. As a result, Coleman won a very tight race against Fmr.Vice-President Walter Mondale. Since then, Coleman has been a fairly reliable supporter of the Bush administration and its policies which has sapped his popularity in Minnesota. While he still is able to maintain some moderate veneer, the voters of MN have started to see through that which has made him vulnerable. There are currently two challengers in the race. First is Comedian/Satirist/Political Commentator Al Franken and Second is MN AG Mike Ciresi. Franken has to be considered the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination as he is raising money hand over fist (including outraising Coleman last quarter) and has established a grassroots operation that Paul Wellstone would be proud of. That being said, its too early to count out Ciresi. I do think that in the end Franken will get the nomination. Franken has fairly high negative ratings which will hurt him, but on the flip side his ability to raise money, his grassroots operation and the fact that its so easy to tie Coleman to the Bush administration should help to counteract that. And, I think everyone remembers how Democrat Amy Klobuchar won the open senate seat by 20 pts in 2006.... Forecast: TOSS-UP.
4. Oregon: Gordon Smith is a multi-term incumbent and has always been fairly popular in this otherwise reliable Democratic state, but that may be coming to an end now. The Bush administration, and by extension the GOP, are VERY unpopular in Oregon and its taking a toll on Smith. While he has attempted to distance himself from the administration, especially on things like the war, it does not seem to be having much of an effect and his numbers continue to go into the tank. Over the course of the past year Smith's approval ratings have dropped from the 60s down into the low-to-mid 30s, and his general re-elect numbers are about as bad. The problem is that the Democrats don't as of yet have a top-tier candidate. The only declared candidate is Steve Novick, a former Justice Department lawyer who won the Love Canal case for the Federal Government. Novick has done fairly well in fundraising but is still greatly hampered by a lack of name recognition among Oregon voters. I think as time goes on there is a decent chance he can solve that problem and unseat Smith. If the Dems get a bigger name in there, I'd say that this is almost as likely to flip as Colorado, but until then I'll call it a toss-up. Forecast: Toss-up
5. Maine: Susan Collins has held this seat since 1996 and this is the first time that she is vulnerable. Collins has a reputation as being a very moderate republican, and maybe she is, but that has not translated into meaningful opposition to the administrations policies. But the fact that she is facing a tough reelection fight may have forced her to try to back up her words with actions as she was one of 3 republicans to vote to break the filibuster on the Levin-Reed bill that would have forced Bush to bring home the troops. That being said, there are plenty of sound bytes out there for her opponents to use against her. The other thing working against her is that when she was first elected, she pledged only to serve 2 terms in the Senate. She reaffirmed this as recently as 2004, but has decided to break that pledge and run for re-election to a 3rd term. Collins has drawn a top-tier challenge in Rep. Tom Allen, a very popular figure in the state. Allen has managed to keep pace with Collins' fundraising efforts, which was no small feat. Forecast: Toss-up
6. North Carolina: Libby Dole won the seat in 2002 after it was vacated by the retiring Jesse Helms. She won a narrow victory then and if she wins this time it will probably be by an even smaller margin. Dole's tenure in the Senate has been undistinguished with no major legislative achievements to her record. Mainly she has simply been a reliable supporter of the Bush administration and its goals. This support of the unpopular President and the war combined with her abysmal record of achievement has left her extremely vulnerable. The only thing that Dole has going for her is the fact that she currently lacks a challenger though that will probably change. Gov. Mike Easley and Rep. Brad Miller have both passed on the race, but it looks like State Rep. Grier Martin will challenge Dole. A recent poll had Dole beating Martin 43-37 with Martin's name ID being almost zero outside of his own district. With Dole's numbers well below 50% and only a 6 point lead over an unknown challenger, Dole is in some serious trouble. I rate this a toss-up only because Martin has not yet decided to enter the race. Forecast: Toss-up
7. Virginia: The seat is held by multi-term incumbent John Warner. What makes this race strange is that no one really seems to know whether or not Sen. Warner is going to run again. He raised all of $500 during the first quarter and only raised about $60K in the second quarter. This, combined with the fact that he's 80 years old, has led many to speculate that he is going to retire. If Warner runs again, the Republican's probably keep the seat. Why? Not because he's not vulnerable, but it just appears that the top Democratic contenders would just choose not to run again. However, if Warner retires, then all bets are off. In that scenario, the Republican nominee would almost certainly be Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11). Who would he face? The rumblings are that in that scenario the uber-popular Fmr. Dem. Gov. MARK Warner would enter the race, in which case he would likely handily defeat Davis. I call this a toss up just b/c we don't know who is running! Forecast: Toss-up
8. Nebraska: The seat is currently held by moderate Republican Chuck Hagel. He is the only solidly anti-war Republican in the Senate. Anywhere else in the country that would assure him a totally unfettered walk to reelection...but not in Nebraska. Its not so much that the war is popular in Nebraska, but it is that the war is very popular with the Republican primary voters and so is the President. So if Hegel were to survive a primary, he'd waltz through the general, but thats the problem...its looking exceedingly unlikely that he'd survive a primary. State AG Jon Bruning has already declared his candidacy and will run on a pro-war, pro Bush platform. Because of this, Hagel has not yet said that he is running again and it appears more likely every day that he will choose to retire. Thats where it gets interesting. Fmr. Democratic Senator (and current President of New School University) Bob Kerrey has let it be known that he'd strongly consider running for his old seat if Hagel chooses to retire. Because of the split in the GOP that Bruning's candidacy would cause, if Kerrey decides to get into the race I think it likely that he would win. But at this point I still think Hagel is going to try to keep his seat, which is why I give the GOP the other hand. Forecast: Leans GOP retention
9. New Mexico: Pete Domenici has held this seat for quite a while, and until the beginning of this year no one really thought that this seat would be competitive, despite the fact that most observers believe that New Mexico will go blue in the Presidential race. But then the President decided to fire a bunch of US Attorneys. One of the US Attorney's fired was the US Attorney for New Mexico, David Iglesias, and there have been indications that Domenici was involved in the political mechanations that led to the firing and then was not very forthcoming about it. As a result Sen. Domenici's approval ratings have fallen dramatically and potentially makes him quite vulnerable next November...if a challenger steps up, and there is currently not one in sight. This is one of two states where the DSCC has dropped the ball and doesn't seem to have a legitimate challenger on the radar. Sen. Schumer needs to pay attention and find a legitimate candidate to take a run at Domenici. But until this happens the GOP is going to hold it. Forecast: Leans GOP retention
10. Alaska: Ted Stevens is batshit crazy and has held this seat for over 30 years. This is the guy that likened the internet to a "series of tubes" that can "get clogged up" with e-mail. But Alaskans are a weird bunch and have always liked this guy. For the longest time it seemed like Sen. Stevens would be there until he died in office or decided to retire. But things can change and that may be what is happening here. Over the last couple of years there has been an ongoing FBI corruption probe in Alaska and shortly after the 2006 election Ted Stevens' son Ben (a state Senator) found himself right in the middle of it when the FBI raided his offices. This cast a bit of a shadow over Ted Stevens and then it has come out lately that there were several earmarks being directed towards businesses and projects that his son may have been involved in and then there are allegations that Ted Stevens may have received improper gifts in the form of remodeling to his house and now the FBI is looking into this. Stevens himself has admitted that this could cause him serious trouble in his re-election bid next year. The only problem for us is that we don't currently have a candidate and the Democratic bench in Alaska is NOT deep as the state tends to be blood red. But there is one potentially strong candidate out there: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Begich is the son of fmr. US Rep. Nick Begich who was killed in a plane crash in 1972 along with US Speaker of the House Hale Boggs. If Begich does not run then Stevens will hold this seat, simply because we don't have anything else. If Begich does run, and this probe continues like I think it will, I think the Dems have a very good chance of taking this seat. Forecast: A. If Begich does not run: Safe GOP retention; B. If Begich does run: Toss-up
11. Kentucky: This seat is held by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell one of the Bush administration's biggest cheerleaders. Unfortunately for him, his ties to the administration hang like an albatross around his neck, giving him an approval rating of 46% vs. a disapproval rating of 45%. It also does not help that the Kentucky GOP is in shambles, with Gov. Ernie Fletcher being the most corrupt governor of any state since Edwin Edwards (Louisiana). Not too long ago a poll came out showing that Rep. Ben Chandler tied with McConnell, but Chandler has not entered the race (and is not expected to). The poll shows that McConnell is staggeringly vulnerable but until we get a candidate we won't be able to take advantage of it. Until then, its a likely GOP retention. Forecast: Likely GOP retention
12. Texas: John Cornyn has held this seat since 2002 and is an absolute tool. He is the Bush administration's mouthpiece in the Senate, its most reliable cheerleader. Luckily Bush's ratings aren't very good here anymore and Texans have started to take notice of Cornyn's act, and as a result he is one of the most unpopular senators in the country. Meanwhile, the Texas Democratic Party has enjoyed a resurgence of late, gaining seats in the state house at a steady rate and we also picked up 2 seats in the US House in 2006 (TX-22, 23). Both the state and national parties are totally committed to this race. Additionally, unlike some of the other top-tier races, we already have 2 good democratic challengers to Cornyn. The first is trial attorney Mikal Watts who has already pledged $10 million of his own money to the race (which would eliminate any fundraising advantage that Cornyn might have). The other is state Senator Rick Noriega of Houston. Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the US Army and did tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Either candidate is capable of defeating Cornyn, but each has their drawbacks. Watts is anti-choice which will not endear him to Democratic voters, and to win this race we don't need anything that will defeat turnout. Secondly, given the success "tort reformers" have had in this state, the fact that he is a trial lawyer could really hurt him. But, he's got the money and will not be outspent by Cornyn. That alone makes him very formidable. Noriega, on the other hand, will not be able to raise money like Watts can (who raised 1.2 million last quarter) and that could be a problem because this is going to be an expensive race. But Noriega does have things working for him that Watts simply does not have. First, Noriega's army background will greatly help him as we love veterans in this state, and the fact that he has stayed in and recently served will further help him. Second, he will play very well with the hispanic community and that could doom Cornyn if they decide to turn out. Third, Noriega is the darling of the netroots which has become the dominant force in the Democratic party. Unfortunately, in the end, this is Texas and its still a red state (though maybe not for much longer) and Cornyn has to be considered the heavy favorite to win....but its not a sure thing. Forecast: Likely GOP retention.
13. Wyoming: There are actually 2 seats up in Wyoming this year. Sen. Mike Enzi is up for re-election because his term is up. The other Senator, John Barasso is up for re-election because he was a mid-term replacement for the late Sen. Craig Thomas who died of Lukemia several months ago. Wyoming is one of the reddest states in the country and its unlikely that either of these seats can be taken by the Democrats but there is one possibility that would put Barasso's seat in play. Note that Enzi's seat is absolutely safe. In an odd anomaly, Wyoming has a Democratic Governor, Dave Fruedenthal, and he is EXTREMELY popular. If he were to decide to take on Barasso he would likely win. There are rumblings that Gov. Fruedenthal may just decide to enter the race, but as of yet he has declined to say that he is considering it. Forecast: Enzi--SAFE GOP retention. Barasso--A. If Freudenthal does not run: Safe GOP retention; B. If Freudenthal does run: Likely Dem pick-up.
14. The other seats the GOP has to defend should be absolutely safe, they are: Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi (unless Cochran retires), South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee.
Questions? Comments? We're here 24-7 for all your 2008 election news and analysis needs.Current Mood:  nerdy Current Music: TV-The British Open |
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