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As promised last night, here are my notes/liveblog of the foreign policy section of the debate (behind the cut). I've also included my final thoughts at the end.
( My Notes )
My Final Impressions:
I think that on substance, this was pretty much a draw. I think that Obama did better than McCain on the economy because he was almost certainly better able to connect with the ordinary middle class voters and speak to the concerns that they have. McCain had two arguments: earmarks and government spending. But I do not think that those two things are going to resonate strongly with the public this time around, especially since McCain didn’t really bother to explain how those issues are really connected to the current crisis. I also think Obama did a pretty good job of diminishing the importance of earmarks as a percentage of the federal budget.
I also think Obama did very well on tax policy. He talked about the necessity of ordinary people getting tax relief and how his plan would provide that and how McCain’s would not. He also did a very good job of beating back McCain’s argument about corporate taxes.
All that being said, I think that he could have gone more on the offense on the economy. He should have spoken more about how deregulation led to the current crisis and how McCain has always been a champion that sort of deregulation and he can’t speak credibly about wanting to regulate. Maybe that will come in the next debate…I hope so.
I thought McCain probably came out a bit ahead on the substance of the foreign policy debate. While I think Obama did a great job of painting McCain as having had horrible judgment at the beginning of the war and how it would unfold, I think he did a poor job addressing the issue of the surge and why withdrawal with a time table would be ok. He should take a cue from Joe Biden on that issue as Joe handled it very well on the news networks after the debates. I also think McCain probably came out ahead on the Iran discussion because I think Obama got himself bogged down in the whole Kissinger thing.
While the substance was a draw, I think Obama is the winner of the debate. First, he was calm, knowledgeable and spoke directly to the American people and I think he did a better job of at least acknowledging the problems that they had. That is reflected in the early polling numbers about the debate which suggest that he had about a 40 point lead in the category of candidate “that better understands my problems.” Second, this was McCain’s best subject—foreign policy. McCain needed to come in here and kick Obama’s ass and he clearly did not do it. Regardless of whether or not you agree with Obama, I think everyone will have to admit that he showed a tremendous understanding of all the issues and was able to speak with authority and went toe-to-toe with McCain on his greatest strength. I think he allayed a lot of fears with his performance. That leads me into the third reason, McCain’s personality and attitude. McCain never looked at Obama the entire night, Obama constantly addressed and looked at McCain. Was he scared? Angry? What? I think that the public is going to react poorly to that, it could be for McCain what Bush I’s habit of looking at his watch was in 1992….bad. Also, McCain was clearly very dismissive and contemptuous of Obama on the foreign policy part of the debate. He kept saying that Obama didn’t understand things, but that is not going to work unless Obama clearly can’t hang with McCain on these issues, but its obvious that Obama has all the knowledge he needs. Those accusations aren’t going to hold water and I think they are going to turn off a lot of people, and that is reflected in the reports from the focus groups that some of the networks were running.
We don’t see the full impact of the debates for a few more days, but I expect that this is going to help Obama.
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I had planned on live-blogging the debates. But, instead, I decided to take notes on paper and then post them online later. I'll put my post-game impressions tomorrow.
8:02: Here we go...the Republic hangs in the balance. Moderator is explaining the rules..I like that there is back-and-forth permitted. Maybe it won't be a glorified press conference.
8:03: QUESTION: Eisenhower talked about "security and solvency," where do you stand on the economic plan?
Obama: We need to proceed "Swiftly and wisely," we need proposals to protect the taxpayers and he lays out four key principles: 1) Oversight; 2) Mechanisms for the taxpayers to get a return on their investment when there are profits and the market bounces back; 3) Getting rid of Golden Parachutes; 4) Steps to protect homeowners. He says that this is the final verdict on 8 years of bad economic policy which Bush and McCain were championing. **Overall, I think this was a mediocre answer by Obama, he could have started stronger**
McCain: He says that he's feeling better about things tonight. He says that we're being bipartisan for the first time in a long time. He says that this could be the "greatest financial crisis since the great depression." He says that this is the beginning of the end of the crisis and talks about how he went to meet with the House GOP. *This was not a good answer either. It opens the door for Obama to attack McCain for injecting Presidential politics into the negotiations and stalling them...will he take the opportunity?"
8:09: Back to Obama--He says that we need to go to the roots of this problem. He says he saw this coming and talks about the warnings he gave to the administration.
McCain: McCain goes back to Eisenhower and the military to make his point. He gives the "two letters" story to talk about "responsibility." He basically says that he'll vote for whatever bailout deal is negotiated. *this could be a good theme for McCain to use, we'll see. However, I'm pretty sure Ike never resigned in that second letter."
Obama: Obama agrees that responsibility is important, but its not just now that we need it, we always need it. He talks about McCain saying that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, basically saying that McCain is late to the party on this. **I think this was a fairly strong answer by Obama, and he needs to keep hammering this point.**
8:13: McCain says that we've got to fix the system. He says "Stricter interpretation of reguliations and agencies..." He talks about the fundamental belief in the strength and ability of the American worker.
8:14 QUESTION: WHAT IS THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM ON THE ECONOMY?
McCain: he admits that the GOP was largely to blame for this mess since they were in power. He blames earmarks and the major increases in spending during the Bush administration. He pledges to veto EVERY new spending bill with earmarks, and he says that Obama has $932 million in earmarks. **It very clear that earmarks and spending are going to be McCain's big points on the economy.**
Obama: He notes that earmarks are only $18 billion of the federal budget, not very much. He points out that McCain is proposing $300 billion to the wealthiest and corporations. He says that CEOs are getting $750,000 average tax breaks under McCain's plan and he leaves millions of middle class people out. He said that this was the policy of Bush.
McCain: He counters that Obama waited to suspend his requests for pork barrel spending until the last couple of years, so he's late to the party. Claims that earmarks have gone up 300% in the last 5 years and he's fought against it his entire career and that Obama would be $800 billion in new spending**Looks like I was right, he's back to the earmarks...I wonder how important the country thinks this is**
8:19: Obama: Says that we need to close tax loopholes and incentives that send jobs over seas. He talks about the need to reform the health care system and that "I pay for every dime of it."
McCain: He says that taxes on business was the cause of all the outsourcing because they pay less taxes overseas. So we need to cut business taxes and keep the jobs at home. He then goes back to the discussion of earmarks and calls Obama a "recent convert" to the cause. He also talks about giving tax breaks and incentives under his plan.
Obama: He states plainly that if you make less than $250K, you are not going to see your taxes increased. He rebuts McCain's point about corporate taxes by noting that while the rates are higher here, the loopholes and incentives that McCain supports mean that we effectively have the lowest corporate tax rates in the world and we still ship jobs overseas. He then answer's McCain's plan for health care tax credits by noting that for the first time ever, we are going to tax health benefits. **This was an incredibly good answer by Obama.**
8:23: McCain brings up the energy bill and asks people to look at their records and who kept spending under control. McCain talks about Obama having voted to raise taxes on lower income people (which is a lie).
Obama: Quickly points out that McCain wants to give billions in new tax breaks to oil companies.
8:26: QUESTION: WILL YOU HAVE TO GIVE UP ANY OF YOUR PRIORITIES FOR THE RESCUE PLAN?
Obama: Obama says that we may have to delay doing things because of the budget crunch. But, there are things that are going to have to be done no matter what: Energy indpenedence, health care reform, tech and science education, college access, and infrastructure improvements. **To be honest, i thought this was kind of a weak answer**
McCain: "We've got to cut spending," and then he brings up the "most liberal senator" accusation. He then talks about the need to eliminate "cost-plus contracts" and explained what they were, adn then talks more generally about reforming and streamlining agencies. He then points to the need to cut ethanol subsidies. **I thought this was a good answer by McCain, but he lost Iowa with this answer when he wanted to cut ethanol subsidies."
8:30: QUESTION: SO WHAT WILL YOU DELAY?
Obama: Some parts of the energy plan may have to be delayed because of budget constraints. He did say that we could save some money by cutting subsidies to private insurance companies under medicare since they don't save any money for the consumer, and he blames lobbyists for this. He answered the "most liberal senator" charge by noting that he worked with Tom Coburn of Oklahoma to pass government transparency legislation and that he was only the most liberal because he spent so much time opposing Bush's policies. **This was a pretty good response, he was smart to take on that "most liberal" charge. I liked the swipe that he took at lobbyists, but will he push that theme like he needs to?"
McCain: McCain says that we'll institute a "spending freeze" for everything but defense and entitlements.
Obama: A spending freeze is using a "hatchet where you need a scalpel." He points to the $10 billion a month that we spend on Iraq and that we need to reign that in.
McCain: McCain says that $700 billion is going overseas because of oil and that we need to do offshore drilling and nuclear power. mcCain goes back to his work on global warming. **Obama needs to respond by pointing out that we won't get a drop from any new drilling for at least 5 years...will he do it?**
8:35: QUESTION: WILL YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE BAILOUT WILL EFFECT YOUR BUDGETS?
Obama: Yes, of course, and elaborates a bit. He then made the point that we need to know the President's values when making decisions in that sort of situation (obviously implying that McCain will not value the midddle class or protect them when making cuts).
McCain: He says criticizes Obama's health care stance by saying we shouldn't hand our health care to the FG and says thats what Obama will functionally do. Then he said that Obama would lead to massive new spending. McCain says we can trust him to adjust spending and take care of veterans. He blames out of control spending for the economic crisis.
Obama: Points out that it was a President from McCain's party that did all this and that MCCain supported him and voted for just about every budged that includes the spending that McCain is criticizing.
McCain: Says that he opposed the president and that he got a running mate who will oppose that stuff too. **This is a HUGE opportunity for Obama to go after Palin. McCain brought her into the discussion and she is the earmark queen**
*****I was planning on doing the whole debate tonight and then folllowing up with my impressions. But its late and I'm tired. So the foreign policy part of the debate and my closing thoughts will come some time tomorrow.*****
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